We now know which team won the right to pick first overall in the 2025 NBA Draft, and it’s probably not who you thought it would be.
The Dallas Mavericks claimed the No. 1 pick Monday despite entering the night with a 1.8 percent chance of doing so. We’ve already seen how our draft expert Sam Vecenie thinks everything will shake out, but you can never have too much draft and roster analysis, right?
Let’s dive into how others on The Athletic NBA staff see the top-14 picks unfolding next month.
1. Dallas Mavericks: Cooper Flagg, F, Duke
Flagg is the no-brainer choice, assuming the Mavericks keep the pick. You can absolutely play Flagg at either forward spot (in the moments you can persuade Anthony Davis to slide over to the center position pretty please, just for a few minutes!) but the Mavs will have a traffic jam in their frontcourt with at least five guys who need minutes, and probably more than that when you factor in small forwards, too. That’s a problem for the guys not named Davis and Flagg.
Flagg will fit into the defensive mindset that Nico Harrison has been begging Mavs fans to buy into since he broke their hearts with the Luka Dončić trade. This won’t completely erase that pain, but it’s great for the franchise’s future. — Zach Harper
2. San Antonio Spurs: Dylan Harper, G, Rutgers
There will be fit questions for a Spurs team that is already set at the guard position with recently acquired De’Aaron Fox and Rookie of the Year in Stephon Castle, but outside of Flagg, Harper might be the most NBA-ready prospect. At 19, Harper’s poise and control are impressive, and even as a below-average outside shooter, his ability to create havoc in the paint and leverage his downhill gravity should translate to the pros immediately.
Even if the Spurs brass deems there isn’t a fit for Harper due to the logjam, this puts San Antonio in a favorable position in any Giannis Antetokounmpo sweepstakes — especially with Damian Lillard set to miss a significant amount of time with a torn Achilles. The Spurs could offer the Bucks the prospect of starting over with Harper, additional role players and future draft capital. — Kelly Iko
3. Philadelphia 76ers: V.J. Edgecombe, G, Baylor
The Sixers will first have to decide whether they want to keep this pick or search for a good deal to include it in. Right now, president of basketball operations Daryl Morey said the plan is to keep it. The Sixers will get younger no matter what with this draft; the question is where.
If the Spurs pass on Harper, then this will get interesting for Philadelphia, but he’s off the board in this mock. Here, the Sixers get an athletic guard with pedigree. Edgecombe was the No. 4 player in his high school class. He struggled a bit at Baylor, but he still played well enough in his only college season. He will fit in alongside the Philly trinity of Joel Embiid, Tyrese Maxey and Paul George and help the Sixers get a little more dangerous. Philadelphia could and should consider Rutgers forward Ace Bailey and Duke wing Kon Knueppel here, too. — Mike Vorkunov
4. Charlotte Hornets: Kon Knueppel, F, Duke
A team plagued by terrible shooting last year could certainly use arguably the best shooter available in the draft, especially one who comes with some helpful local branding from his season up the road at Duke. Charlotte shot just 33.9 percent from 3 last season to rank 28th in the league and should have plentiful minutes available for Knueppel to develop. A 6-foot-7 wing who shot 40.7 percent from 3 and 91.4 percent from the line last season, Knueppel should also benefit from playing next to LaMelo Ball’s passing wizardry. — John Hollinger
5. Utah Jazz: Ace Bailey, F, Rutgers
The Jazz can go with Tre Johnson here as well. I have both on the same tier. The difference here is that I think Bailey has a higher ceiling, although a lower floor, than Johnson. That’s the separator for me, because the Jazz desperately need someone who can develop into a star-level player.
This is the tier of the draft that makes it difficult for Utah. Had the Jazz gotten the top pick and Cooper Flagg, they would have gotten a near-cant-miss prospect. Had the Jazz gotten the second pick and Dylan Harper, they would have gotten a guy who is more likely than not to be a star. With Bailey, the Jazz are going to have to do a lot of work, because he’s got serious flaws in his game, namely the lack of ballhandling acumen. That being said, Bailey may be the best shot maker in the draft, and the Jazz need someone who can create and make shots. Bailey is also a plus athlete, can develop into a plus defender and can develop into a potentially elite-level scorer. It’s just difficult when you lose the way the Jazz did this season and didn’t come out of the draft with one of the two real prizes. — Tony Jones
6. Washington Wizards: Tre Johnson, G, Texas
Shooting has never been more important, and the Wizards don’t have enough of it, finishing last in offensive rating and 29th in 3-point shooting percentage. The expectation here is that Johnson will bring high-level shooting early in his career and — and this is important — will improve on the weak spots of his game, namely his defense. He’ll bring positional size, so he should have potential on that end. I strongly considered Jeremiah Fears here, but I decided against Fears because the Wizards already have rising second-year player Bub Carrington and veteran Jordan Poole; if Washington’s front office decides that Fears is the best available player on the board, then he should be the pick, despite the overlap. — Josh Robbins
7. New Orleans Pelicans: Jeremiah Fears, G, Oklahoma
The Pelicans traded for former All-Star Dejounte Murray last summer, hoping to fill the team’s glaring need at point guard. A year later, the need for a new point guard is greater than ever after Murray ruptured his right Achilles in January. He’s expected to be sidelined for a large chunk of next season, and even when he does come back, there’s no telling how long it’ll take for him to return to form after going through such a devastating injury.
With Fears, the Pelicans add a heady floor general who operates well in the pick-and-roll and should fit well playing next to scoring options like Zion Williamson and Trey Murphy. Fears’ shooting efficiency was troubling at times during his only season at Oklahoma, but he showed a willingness to step up and take on a bigger role on offense when the lights were bright. Playing with Williamson will require Fears to be more reliable as a spot-up shooter. It’s the only way he’ll be able to stay on the floor. If that part of his game shows some improvement, he may end up being the exact kind of piece this team needs to complement the other mainstays on the roster. — William Guillory
8. Brooklyn Nets: Collin Murray-Boyles, F, South Carolina
The Nets built a cohesive defensive identity early last season before they started to pull their roster apart. It’s unclear who will still be on the roster heading into next season, with only Cam Johnson and Nic Claxton currently locks for the rotation. This team needs offensive leadership, even if it does re-sign Cam Thomas. But if the Nets keep this pick, Murray-Boyles fits well into their identity. He is a defensive maestro who can slot in between Claxton and Johnson in the frontcourt. The Nets will hope that the frontcourt can form an elite defense while the backcourt carries the weight offensively. — Jared Weiss
9. Toronto Raptors: Derik Queen, C, Maryland
The Raptors have enough talent that they don’t have to go in any particular positional direction here. Masai Ujiri tends to swing for upside, and this board shakes out with giving the Raptors some nice options up front: Queen or Duke freshman Khaman Maluach, who came from the NBA Academy in Africa. While the latter projects to be a rim-running, shot-blocking center, the Raptors need to bet on offensive upside. Queen isn’t a pure shooter, but his touch and feel for the game should be a good match with the movement-heavy offense coach Darko Rajaković has been trying to install over his first two years. It’s a close call, but the Raptors go offense over defense here. — Eric Koreen
10. Houston Rockets: Carter Bryant, F, Arizona
It’s difficult to envision another young player attempting to crack a tight Ime Udoka rotation — Reed Sheppard and Cam Whitmore spent this season observing — but in Bryant, the Rockets would have a plug-and-play 3-and-D wing. Houston’s lack of floor spacing was apparent during the playoffs, and Bryant, who shot 37.1 percent from 3 at Arizona this season, is more than capable. His activity at the other end alone aligns perfectly with Udoka’s core beliefs.
There are some similarities in terms of defensive playmaking with current wing Tari Eason, but Bryant is probably a better ballhandler with a high ceiling. Houston is big on upside plays, and at 6-8 with legit two-way potential, it would be hard to pass up on Bryant. — Kelly Iko
11. Portland Trail Blazers: Noa Essengue, F, Ratiopharm Ulm
General manager Joe Cronin likes high-upside players, and as the second youngest player in the draft, the 6-foot-9 forward is an intriguing prospect. Blazers fans might remember him from October, when during an exhibition game against the Blazers, he had 20 points, eight rebounds, five steals and two blocks. He’s skinny and unpolished, but with Toumani Camara and Deni Avdija, the Blazers don’t need him to play huge minutes right away. — Jason Quick
12. Chicago Bulls: Khaman Maluach, C, Duke
How could Bulls chief basketball exec Artūras Karnišovas, a native Lithuanian, not be tempted to select Illinois guard Kasparas Jakučionis here? It would be the second straight draft that Karnišovas would have selected a player of Lithuanian descent after taking Matas Buzelis No. 11 last year. But the Bulls have a logjam in the backcourt. They desperately need defenders and interior size. Maluach, an athletic 7-foot-2 center, checks all the boxes and would be a godsend as an ideal fit for the Bulls’ roster. — Darnell Mayberry
13. Atlanta Hawks: Egor Demin, F, BYU
It’s going to be hard for the Hawks to resist taking a 7-2 center here if Maluach gets to them, but hater Mayberry took him off the board at No. 12. That leaves Atlanta in a more traditional “best player available” mode, and the Hawks also need more ball handling and shot creation on the perimeter, especially when Trae Young is out of the game. Thus, Demin becomes the logical choice, even if on paper he somewhat overlaps positionally with last year’s top pick Zaccharie Risahcer. Demin is much more of an on-ball presence than Risacher and could operate as the de facto backup point guard if he proves rotation-ready. — John Hollinger
14. San Antonio Spurs: Danny Wolf, C, Michigan
An underlying part of San Antonio’s 34-48 season was the lack of a consistent, quality backup big to Victor Wembanyama. The Spurs cycled through the likes of Charles Bassey, Sandro Mamukelashvili and Bismack Biyombo, all of whom are headed for unrestricted free agency this summer.
Enter Wolf, who by all accounts is more polished offensively at 21 than Bassey and Biyombo (a good argument for Mamu, too). At Michigan, Wolf was a bit daring with the ball, and his 3.6 turnovers aren’t a great look at center. But he’s confident with the ball in his hands and should fit well with Mitch Johnson’s pace-and-space scheme. He’s a 7-footer who moves well for his size, has a good feel for the game and could potentially play alongside Wemby at times.
(Top photo of Kon Knueppel and Cooper Flagg: Ethan Miller / Getty Images)
